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Sunday, May 29, 2005

If It Dies, C'est La Vie

"....The more sensible worry is that a French 'no' will usher in a period of European introversion and declining interest in working with the U.S. on such matters as integrating Turkey or Ukraine into Europe. One of the constitution's features is a nonrotating EU president and foreign minister that, the pro-constitution argument goes, would provide the U.S. with a more effective partner on the world stage.

It is unlikely, however, that the EU, even if the constitution goes down, would � or could � ignore Ukraine or Turkey for long. Turkey's prospects for EU membership would decline considerably if the French vote no, but that would require Brussels to redouble its outreach to Ankara to prevent an even greater crisis on Europe's rim. And although a new, streamlined foreign policy bureaucracy, a possibility under the proposed document, might make the EU a more coherent global actor, the new constitution would do little to change the underlying, consensus-driven process that marks key EU foreign policy decisions. The EU's might be the louder voice, but its words would be no different."

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