"An analysis of regime shifts in the Turkish economy
Hakan Yilmazkudaya, Corresponding Author Contact Information, E-mail The Corresponding Author and Koray Akayb
aDeparment of Economics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, 37235, USA
bDepartment of Economics, Istanbul Bilgi University, Istanbul, 34440, Turkey
Accepted 29 November 2007. Available online 30 January 2008.
Abstract
We use a time-varying dynamic factor model with regime switching to construct and estimate the leading indicators of the currency crises in Turkey. After that, we analyze the business cycles of the Turkish economy, by using a three-state univariate Markov-switching model. Both models capture the observed dynamics of the Turkish economy over the period 1987–2002. "
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