Too soon to cheer Turkey’s soft landing
It’s too soon to cheer Turkey’s soft landing. After two years of near double digit GDP growth which ended in double digit inflation, Ankara has managed to apply the brakes on the economy without tipping it into a recession. Yet Turkey’s vulnerability to external shocks hasn’t shrunk with the current account deficit.
Growth has slowed. Turkey’s government now expects just over 3% this year, well below the last decade’s 5% average rate. However, a sharp slowdown in domestic demand has been cushioned by rising exports to the Middle East. The energy importer’s current account deficit has narrowed from 10% of GDP in 2011 to around 8% this year.
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