The phrase “West Kurdistan”, used to describe north-east Syria, would in the past send shivers down the spine of any Turkish prime minister, but Recep Tayyip Erdogan is shivering a lot more at the imminent prospect of Jabhat Al Nusra, the Al Qaida affiliate, controlling a large part of northern Syria, including long stretches of the 900-kilometre border that Syria shares with Turkey.
Consequently Turkey is working hard to develop a much more active approach to the emerging new Kurdish powers south of its borders. It has developed a good relationship with the KRG ( in Iraq) and the Kurds are buying a lot of Turkish goods, while at the same time their substantial energy resources are important to Turkey. This warmth is in stark contrast to the deeply suspicious approach of ten years ago when the Turks were worried that the KRG would become a base for the PKK, which has been fighting for autonomy or possible independence for the Kurdish region in Turkey.
More amazing, Erdogan has held talks with the imprisoned Abdullah Ocalan, the notorious and ruthless leader of the PKK ( still considered a terrorist organization in the US and EU), and they have come to an agreement to stop the fighting in the 29-year Kurdish rebellion.
Ocalan said it was time for “the guns to fall silent and for ideas to speak” and Erdogan called Ocalan’s statement “positive”.
Importantly, Ocalan seems to still be obeyed by the militias in the field, as Murat Karayilan, a senior PKK commander in Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq, swiftly declared a ceasefire and the PKK has announced that it will start to withdraw its 3,000 militiamen from Turkish territory into the KRG on May 8.
The Iranians must be profoundly worried by these developments. The PKK has had an offshoot in Iran, the PJAK (Kurdish Free Life Party), which has had a ceasefire with Iran for almost two years, during which time, Iran stopped cooperating with Turkey against Kurdish militants of whatever national origin. Many PKK militiamen from the Iranian struggle moved over to fight against the Turks, but now it seems very possible that this “Iranian faction” of the PKK will return to Iran and seek to take up the struggle against the government once more. This will delight Erdogan and for Barzani (in Iraq), it will simply be a continuation of the Kurds’ decades-long fight anyway.
Paris-based Kurdish researcher Mustafa Pekoz says: "The Turkish government's policy aiming to eliminate the PKK went bankrupt last summer when the PKK launched a new strategy called the 'People's Revolutionary War' which aimed at taking over some areas in the south-east region. And that strategy undermined the Turkish army's operations."
"I think it would be accurate to argue that this peace process is the final exit for the Turkish state," says another Turkish journalist, Rusen Cakir. It could very well be.
"Presently solving the PKK problem and ending the war can also be seen as a positive step for the AKP's election prospects” says Zeynep Kaya of the London School of Economics. She adds this is also true for the Kurdish movement: "They also want to end a war which they are not losing, but they have come to realize that they cannot win."
However, one of the overriding factors of this "rapprochment" between the Turks and the Kurds, which is hardly ever mentioned, is the fact that Mr. Erdogan's AK-Party strong religious overtones are more in-line with the Kurds, who are even more religiously orientated than the followers of the AK-Party. Could Sharia law for Turkey be the next step in this so-called "Peace Process" ? Regardless of how significant these overtures between the Kurds and Turks may seem, one can safely say that this is a huge gamble for the Turkish PM. If he succeeds he will be a hero, if not, the end of his reign will come swiftly.
