"Turkey
Things look a little different in the case of Turkey's EU prospects. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso expressed his doubts about Turkey's candidacy earlier in the week, calling for a serious discussion about the EU's future ties with Turkey. This followed earlier comments by French President Jacques Chirac that, without the constitution, the EU will simply not be able to incorporate new members. But UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, who'll head the EU for six months as from 1 July, had reassuring words, promising that the EU would meet its obligations to both Turkey and Croatia. This refers in part to the negotiations with Istanbul which are scheduled to start on 3 October.
The European Commission shares Mr Blair's expectation that these negotiations will begin as planned, though Germany could prove to be a final obstacle if the Christian Democrats win the German elections in September. However, observers believe their leader, Angela Merkel, will not dare block the start of negotiations, especially as new German chancellors tend to steer clear of taking major political decisions so soon after taking power. Even so, the process of negotiation is likely to take more than the ten years already envisaged, and calls for Turkey to be given some kind of second-class membership of the EU are likely to increase."
More:Hoping to join the EU - the current prospects for countries in the queue
