"...Princeton, N.J.: A high probability scenario seems to be that our troops are withdrawn from Iraq within a year and the country falls into chaos-civil war, what have you. I think we should at least be thinking about this. Some questions:
1. Will Turkey invade the North?
2. Will Iran invade the South?
3. What will happen to Baghdad?
Dana Priest: If the scenario plays out, then yes on one and two unless we can get some sort of deal going now--which is probably more likely in the north than with Iran. Since Turkey still wants to be considered a good actor in the European context. Iran is much more problematic. They may well believe a war is inevitable, but they will eventually win a section, so it will be worth it. Baghdad, under that scenario, would eventually go to the Iranian/Shiites too unless we see the Sunni neighboring states jumping in and then, who knows. But it's the worst case scenario and right now it does not seem out of the question, unfortunately."
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