"Laws of electoral physics shape Turkey
By Soner Cagaptay
Commentary by
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
In the past decade, developments in Turkish politics corresponding to the three laws of physics have altered the structure of the country’s political system beyond recognition.
First, the law of unintended consequences: an electoral threshold barring parties that receive less than 10 percent of the vote from Parliament has indelibly impacted Turkish politics. This threshold assigns the smaller parties’ seats mainly to the party receiving the most votes, which in turn dominates Parliament. The more parties that fail the threshold, the more seats the first party gets, and the more artificially powerful it becomes. This threshold could influence the upcoming June 2011 Turkish elections. Be prepared for surprises that could affect the future of both Turkey and its ruling Justice and Development Party (A.K.P.)."
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