Turkey: The Perils and Promise of Prediction
Blog Post by Steven A. Cook, Author
Last updated April 2, 2019
A few days before Turkey’s local elections, I wrote an article for Foreign Policy.com titled “Erdogan is Weak. And Invincible.” Well, at least the first part was accurate. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost in major metropolitan areas including the capital, Ankara, as well as Antalya, Izmir, Adana, and Mersin. There is strong evidence to indicate that it also lost Istanbul. The party still controls most towns and cities in the country, but this was a defeat for AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Needless to say, this was an outcome that I did not expect. No excuses—I blew it.
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