Turkey’s Kurdish oil gamble
Rather than assume regional leadership and help resolve the oil dispute between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has done just the opposite. Ankara’s sale of Kurdish crude without Baghdad’s authorization — with revenues to be deposited in a Turkish bank — may pressure Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, give Turkey access to cheap Kurdish crude and provide much-needed revenue to the KRG. Yet it has unleashed a legal and political backlash in Iraq. Erdogan’s goodwill gesture toward the Kurds has also deepened the polarization between Baghdad and Erbil without resolving the KRG’s current revenue crisis. The KRG remains in financial limbo, dependent upon both Ankara and Baghdad, and still in need of a grand bargain that can permit large-scale, risk-free exports through the northern corridor.
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