★ Many West Europeans fear that the accession of Turkey – poor, populous and often unstable –
will harm the EU economy. But Turkey’s economy is tiny compared with that of the EU-25. And
what little economic impact Turkey’s EU entry will have is likely to be positive.
★ Turkey already has a custom union with the EU, and in many ways it is better prepared than the
Central and East Europeans were when they started accession talks. But Turkey’s accession process
will be more difficult to manage than that of the East European countries. Turkey’s large pile of debt
leaves it unusually vulnerable to swings in investor confidence. Moreover, Ankara will not be able
to use EU accession as an anchor for economic reform in the way the East Europeans did.
★ Turkish workers will not gain the right to apply for jobs in other EU countries until after 2020.
By then, many West European countries may well be wooing Turkish workers to help them
compensate for the ageing of their own workforces.
★ Eastward enlargement is already forcing the EU to change in a way that will, eventually, make
it easier for Turkey to join. By then, the EU will hopefully have more efficient institutions and
decision-making procedures. And it will have sorted out its labour market problems. If not, the EU
of 2015 or 2020 will be slow-growing, gridlocked and unwelcoming. Turkey would not want to
join such a club.
More:essay_economics_turkey_ july_05.pdf">The economics of Turkish accession