Will there be an early election in Turkey after this one?
There are three main scenarios for Turkey the day after the June 7 elections:
1) The Erdoğan scenario: The Kurdish problem-oriented Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) fails to break the 10 percent threshold to get into parliament. The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the National Movement Party (MHP) fail to significantly increase their votes. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) manages to get over, or very near to, 330 seats of the total 550 - which is the minimum to take a new constitution to a referendum. This means that Erdoğan will be able to get very close to what he desires: A strong presidential system with weakened checks and balances. Erdoğan would ask Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s government to form that constitution as soon as possible, returning to a security-based policy on the Kurdish issue, in the event that Kurdish militancy - disappointed with the HDP’s failure (amid speculation about election rigging) - returns.
More:Will there be an early election in Turkey after this one? - MURAT YETKİN